In a notable diplomatic sequence, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin exchanged congratulatory messages just days before Putin’s scheduled visit to Beijing. This visit follows closely on the heels of former U.S. President Donald Trump’s departure from China after a significant summit. Xi highlighted the strengthening ties between Russia and China, marking the 30th anniversary of their strategic partnership, as reported by Chinese state media. Putin is expected to land in China on Tuesday night, with a meeting with Xi planned for Wednesday morning, as confirmed by Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov. The discussions are set to cover a range of bilateral topics, including the proposed Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline.
The back-to-back hosting of leaders from both the United States and Russia has garnered significant attention, with analysts pointing out the rarity of such a sequence in the post-Cold War era. The growing bond between China and Russia has raised concerns in Western circles, particularly in light of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. China’s economic and diplomatic backing has been crucial for Russia, helping to sustain its activities, according to Western diplomats and experts. The frequency of meetings between Xi and Putin, which surpasses those of Xi with Western leaders, underscores this deepening relationship.
Since 2022, trade between China and Russia has reached unprecedented levels, with China purchasing over a quarter of Russia’s exports. This includes significant amounts of Russian crude oil, which have provided Moscow with substantial revenue amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Data from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air indicates that China has imported more than $367 billion worth of Russian fossil fuels since the war began, bolstering its energy security, particularly important after disruptions in oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz due to the Middle East crisis.
Trump’s recent talks with Xi in Beijing seemed to sideline the issues of the Ukraine war and Sino-Russian ties, focusing instead on trade, Taiwan, and Middle Eastern conflicts. Trump reported a consensus with Xi on the importance of reopening the Strait of Hormuz. However, Xi cautioned Trump on Taiwan, emphasizing the risks of mishandling the sensitive issue. Trump left the talks undecided on a potential multibillion-dollar arms deal to Taiwan, a decision that could significantly impact Beijing’s ambitions regarding the self-governed island.
Joseph Webster, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, suggested that the Taiwan situation might be an underlying theme in the Xi-Putin meeting. Beijing could be seeking additional fossil fuel agreements with Moscow to secure energy supplies should a conflict arise. The expansion of Russian oil pipeline capacity to China, such as through the Power of Siberia 2 project, would significantly bolster Beijing’s energy security in a potential Taiwan crisis.