Is Exxon Mobil’s Return to Russia a Done Deal?

Speculation is mounting over whether Exxon Mobil’s potential return to Russia is becoming a “done deal” behind the scenes, a key bargaining chip in a grand US-Russia bargain. The possibility is gaining credibility as the US finalizes punitive tariffs on India.
The return of a US supermajor like Exxon Mobil to the Sakhalin-1 project would require explicit approval from the highest levels of the US government, effectively overriding the current sanctions regime. That such a move is even being discussed in high-level talks suggests it is a serious consideration.
The motivation is powerful: the Trump administration sees it as a potential key to unlocking peace talks in Ukraine and securing a major foreign policy achievement. For President Trump, the allure of announcing a deal of this magnitude is a significant driver.
While no official announcement has been made, the juxtaposition with the now-active 50% tariffs on India sends a strong signal. The administration is clearing the decks of any perceived hypocrisy from allies, perhaps to pave the way for its own major, strategic reversal in policy towards Russia.